Manila:Throughout history, Egyptian leaders have pursued various strategies, including military invasions, proxy wars, and covert diplomacy, to exert dominance over the Nile Basin, often destabilizing Ethiopia in the process. This ongoing rivalry is not just about water but also about power and influence over a river that sustains millions.
According to Ethiopian News Agency, the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia has evolved over more than a century, shaped by their geographic positions with Egypt downstream and Ethiopia upstream. The Blue Nile originates in the Ethiopian highlands, creating a pivotal question regarding control over development when the source lies upstream, yet security concerns are downstream.
Initially, in the nineteenth century, Egypt's attempts to conquer Ethiopian territory through military expansion under Khedive Ismail Pasha ended in failure. Egyptian forces were defeated in 1875 and 1876 by Emperor Yohannes IV's forces, marking the end of Egypt's military ambitions in the region.
During the mid-twentieth century, under Gamal Abdel Nasser, the focus shifted to diplomacy and regional competition. Egypt engaged in proxy warfare and regional politics, notably supporting Somali irredentism and insurgencies in Eritrea. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, which excluded Ethiopia, symbolized this era's diplomatic tensions.
Under Anwar Sadat, the Nile became a national security issue, with open threats of military action against Ethiopia's dam proposals. Egypt's involvement in the 1977 Ogaden War, supporting Somali forces, highlighted the intertwining of regional conflicts and Nile disputes.
The Hosni Mubarak era saw a shift to quieter forms of pressure, using diplomacy and international influence to block funding for Ethiopian water infrastructure projects. This strategy aimed to maintain Egypt's established position in Nile diplomacy.
During Mohamed Morsi's presidency, a televised meeting revealed extreme options considered to pressure Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), illustrating the deep security concerns within Egypt regarding the dam.
Under Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt's approach combines formal diplomacy, military deterrence, and regional containment. Egypt has strengthened military alliances and security focus in the Red Sea region, reinforcing its stance on downstream water security as an existential matter.
Despite these efforts, Ethiopia has continued to assert its rights, culminating in the construction and operation of the GERD. This long-standing rivalry underscores the need for a cooperative framework that balances water security and development rights for all Nile Basin countries.
