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President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Alignment Raises Concerns Over Regional Stability

New El-Alamein City:President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia participated in a summit in New El-Alamein City, where he joined regional leaders in signing a quadrilateral joint declaration. This summit aimed to form a geopolitical bloc to limit Ethiopia's economic autonomy and security interests in the Nile Basin and the Red Sea. President Hassan Sheikh's support for this declaration signals a significant shift in Somalia's foreign policy, contrasting with the historical support Ethiopia has provided to maintain Somalia's territorial integrity.

According to Ethiopian News Agency, Ethiopia has played a crucial role in supporting Somalia's governance since the collapse of its central government in 1991. Ethiopia hosted key conferences that helped establish the Transitional Federal Government, which laid the foundation for the current Somali presidency. Ethiopian forces have also been instrumental in countering extremist threats and liberating key regions from Al-Shabaab, ensuring Somalia's security and stability.

Despite this support, President Hassan Sheikh has aligned Somalia with a coalition that challenges Ethiopia's development rights. The El-Alamein Declaration includes a 'non-harm' principle that could impede Ethiopia's ability to undertake upstream projects by granting downstream countries veto power. This stance, rooted in international water law, could restrict Ethiopia and other nations from developing their resources.

Eritrea's participation in this coalition adds complexity to the situation. By supporting Egypt's strict 'non-harm' clause, Eritrea prioritizes Egyptian interests over its own, potentially compromising its future Nile rights. This alignment diverges from the Cooperative Framework Agreement endorsed by other Nile Basin countries, which seeks equitable water resource distribution.

The El-Alamein Declaration also overlooks Ethiopia's legitimate interest in Red Sea security, ignoring its historical and regional significance. Ethiopia's exclusion from Red Sea governance disregards its crucial role in the region's economic and demographic landscape.

Overall, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's support for a bloc that restricts Ethiopia's rights undermines longstanding regional cooperation and stability. Sustainable peace in the Horn of Africa requires honoring past sacrifices and recognizing all nations' equitable rights to shared resources.