Manila:Forecasts for the Horn of Africa indicate that preparing evacuation sites and access routes before communities are displaced is more effective than responding after disasters occur. The next stage of regional preparedness should focus on local implementation, ensuring that forecast information reaches farmers, pastoralists, local administrators, health workers, and communities in an understandable and usable form. Practical advice, such as when to plant or where to move livestock, is crucial for effective preparation.
According to the Ethiopian News Agency, financing is a critical factor for successful anticipatory action. In June 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) issued a joint El Ni±o anticipatory action appeal, seeking USD 202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries. Proposed measures include cash assistance, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection, water harvesting and storage, flood protection, agricultural advisories, and early warning information. This approach reflects a shift from reacting post-disaster to acting before predictable shocks occur.
Investing in anticipatory action provides significant economic benefits. The WFP reports that every dollar invested can save between USD 3 and USD 7 in avoided losses and response costs. FAO suggests that anticipatory action can generate up to USD 7 in benefits and avoided agricultural losses per dollar invested. These outcomes depend on various factors such as hazard, location, and timing, but they underscore the economic efficiency of investing ahead of climate shocks rather than relying solely on emergency responses.
Local forecasts are crucial as regional forecasts cannot replace detailed local information. ICPAC's seasonal forecast offers a broad view of expected climate conditions, while national meteorological and hydrological services provide detailed guidance for national and local levels. Preparedness plans should include trigger points for actions related to local conditions, such as rainfall totals or disease indicators. This enables timely responses, such as cash assistance or flood protection, once thresholds are reached.
Agriculture and livestock are central to these efforts, as climate shocks can have lasting impacts. Floods can destroy crops and disrupt markets, while excessive rainfall can improve pasture but also increase disease risks for livestock. Early action helps protect productive capacity, maintaining livelihoods through climate-informed planting advice, livestock vaccination, and water management.
Flood preparedness is also a public health priority. Flooding can contaminate water and sanitation systems, increasing disease risks. The IGAD High-Level Call to Action emphasizes the need for strengthened health surveillance for flood-related diseases. Early warning systems can aid health authorities in preparing and coordinating responses before outbreaks escalate.
Delays in action can lead to prolonged consequences, such as expensive infrastructure repairs and deepened poverty for vulnerable households. Past El Ni±o events have shown the scale of such risks, with significant impacts on food security globally. For the Horn of Africa, the challenge is to turn forecasts into action, reducing foreseeable risks through flexible and timely interventions.
As the region approaches the end of 2026, it benefits from clear regional climate information, established early warning systems, and growing experience with anticipatory action. The objective is to use these assets to minimize potential losses and ensure communities are at the center of preparedness decisions.
