Addis ababa: The Horn of Africa stands at a critical historical crossroads, caught between Ethiopia's genuine national determination to consolidate peace and rebuild the country, and persistent efforts by hardline actors and regional interventionists that are once again pushing the region toward an abyss of war. Since the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement that successfully halted the devastating two-year Northern Ethiopia war, complex dynamics have emerged increasingly, shaping the political landscape day by day. The federal government's efforts have stood out as a fundamental pillar of stability, while counter-movements led by elements of the dissolved Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), supported by regional entanglements, seek to prolong the conflict.
According to Ethiopian News Agency, in November 2022, Ethiopians and the international community welcomed the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, which brought the conflict to a halt and opened a window of hope for Tigray's recovery. From that pivotal moment onward, the Ethiopian federal government adopted a policy committed to peace, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. The government translated this commitment into tangible actions, including the delivery of humanitarian assistance, the allocation of substantial reconstruction budgets, and the establishment of an interim regional administration to facilitate the political transition process.
The hardline faction within the dissolved Front treated the Pretoria Agreement as merely a temporary truce. Multiple reports indicate that the group resorted to forced recruitment, including the conscription of minors as young as 13 and 14 years old. By April 2026, this escalatory path had taken an institutional character as hardline elements dismantled the legitimate interim regional administration and announced the formation of a 'self-administration' and local parliaments lacking any legal mandate in an attempt to evade accountability and impose a unilateral political and military reality.
Intelligence reports and international monitoring sources, including a report by Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), revealed that disputed areas such as Wolkait have become active flashpoints through cross-border coordination. Available information indicates that regional actors have provided logistical and operational support to forces affiliated with the Tigray People's Liberation Front. This support became evident when the city of Port Sudan hosted a conference in mid-May 2026 that announced the formation of the 'Tsimdo' alliance, which includes the dissolved Front and other rebel groups, including factions of the insurgent Fano militia.
Both Getachew Reda and Redwan Hussein, in a joint analytical article published on Al Jazeera's website, warned that hardline elements within the Tigray People's Liberation Front were exploiting the Pretoria Agreement as a tactical cover to gain time, reorganize their ranks, and prepare for new attacks against the federal government. The article revealed the dimensions of complex alliances being forged against the path of stability, asserting that attempts by the dissolved Front to ignite a new round of conflict are receiving direct support and incitement from Eritrea and other neighboring states.
Amid this complex environment, a political response emerged in the form of the establishment of the 'Tigray Council for Peace and Change' by opposition political and military forces and factions that broke away from the Front. This coalition enjoys support from the people of Tigray and the international community and is viewed as a political alternative seeking to end the dominance of the defunct Tigray People's Liberation Front while advancing a path based on peace, the will for change, and the rejection of a return to war.
Despite these efforts, the greatest challenge remains the international position. International silence regarding forced recruitment, militarization, and regional interference is seen as a factor that encourages hardline actors to continue escalating tensions. This context underscores that Ethiopia's stability is inseparable from the stability of the entire Horn of Africa, and that safeguarding the gains of peace requires a firmer international stance that exerts pressure on those obstructing the Pretoria Agreement and their supporters in order to prevent the region from sliding back into war once again.